tasq/node_modules/agentdb/simulation/scenarios/README-basic/causal-reasoning.md

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Causal Reasoning Simulation

Overview

Causal relationship analysis with intervention-based reasoning, testing cause-effect hypotheses through graph-based causal edges.

Purpose

Model causal inference using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and measure intervention effects (uplift).

Operations

  • Causal Pairs: 10-15 cause-effect relationships
  • Uplift Measurement: Quantify causal impact
  • Confidence Scoring: Bayesian confidence intervals
  • Intervention Analysis: Counterfactual reasoning

Results

  • Throughput: 3.13 ops/sec
  • Latency: 308ms avg
  • Causal Edges: 3 per iteration
  • Avg Uplift: 10-13%
  • Avg Confidence: 92%

Technical Details

await causal.addCausalEdge({
  fromMemoryId: causeId,
  toMemoryId: effectId,
  uplift: 0.12,  // 12% improvement
  confidence: 0.95,
  mechanism: 'implement_caching → reduce_latency'
});

Applications

  • A/B testing analysis
  • Root cause analysis
  • Treatment effect estimation
  • Policy evaluation

Status: Operational